Week 6 NFL Odds
Jaguars vs. Colts Odds
Cody Goggin: The Jaguars thoroughly dominated Indianapolis in Week 2. Playing just four weeks later, I don’t see this game going too much differently.
Matt Ryan and the Colts offense have not been able to get things going all season, and their offensive line is still a liability against a very good Jacksonville front.
Last time out, Trevor Lawrence shredded this defense that is still missing their star linebacker and now has lost a talented edge rusher as well. I don’t know what to make of the stinker against Houston last week, but I still have faith in the improvements that Jacksonville has shown under Doug Pederson.
I took the Jaguars at +2.5 before the injury news Saturday, and I’d still take the Jaguars at +1.5, inside the key number of 3.
Pick: Jaguars +1.5 | Bet to -120
Jets vs. Packers Odds
The Great Foosini: While I am not hopeful for the Jets this weekend, I am not going to play the side unless it gets to 6.5. In that case, I would absolutely bet the Packers. That spread would simply be below long-term expectations for both teams and hits below the key number.
We do see key trends for these Jets and Packers teams to date that pave the way for a play on the total. While the Jets do have incredibly solid corners in Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, their safeties wildly underperform, leaving their pass defense susceptible to a high-powered offense like Green Bay’s.
One of the key trends coming out of London games shows that defenses largely underperform, and the opposing team can put up points. This is limited in sample but logically makes sense. We’ve seen the Jets score 20 or more the past two weeks. Granted those performances were against poor teams, but the Packers defense thus far is nothing to brag about.
I expect Rodgers to come out firing and put up a show while the Jets hang in there to get this total over. I’ll be taking over 45.5 and betting it up to 46, with a strong lean on Green Bay at 7.5.
FanDuel Quickslip: Over 45.5 (Bet to 46) | Lean GB -7.5
Ravens vs. Giants Odds
Phillip Call: The Giants defense should have an edge here with Martindale’s knowledge of the Ravens and specifically Jackson. However, we also know that New York’s aggressive style lends itself to being beaten on the backend. Jackson grades 77.6 against the blitz with seven touchdowns to just one interception this season. This looks like the edge goes to the Ravens’ offense.
On the flip side, the Ravens rank 26th in yards per carry allowed. Against a team built around its running back, this could be a major problem. However, the Ravens have circumvented this problem by forcing teams to throw. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL with 16.4 points per game in the first half. The Giants are way down at 28th with 6.6 points per game in the first half.
I expect Baltimore to be aggressive early and force the ball out of Barkley’s hands by scoring. The Giants’ passing attack ranks last in net yards per attempt.
I trust Jackson will show why he should be MVP this season with a big showing against his former defensive coordinator. The Giants will be in a position where Barkley cannot save them by being superhuman.
Back the Ravens to put together a full game and strike midnight for the Giants’ Cinderella story.
Pick: Ravens -5.5 | Bet to -6.5
Bengals vs. Saints Odds
Landon Silinsky: The defensive injuries on both teams should allow both offenses to move the ball, and with this game being played indoors at the Superdome without weather concerns, this could turn into a bit of a back-and-forth affair. If Olave suits up for the Saints, they should have enough offensive success to push the Bengals.
Ultimately, it feels a little strange to see Cincinnati as a road favorite in this spot because of how they’ve been playing. Kamara is a nice security blanket for Dalton and I am tempted to take the home dog in this spot. However, there should be a decent bit of scoring — especially from the Bengals — and I think this total is a bit low. Give me the over.
FanDuel Quickslip: Over 43.5 | Play to 44
Buccaneers vs. Steelers Odds
Dylan Wilkerson: This is the perfect time to buy low on the Steelers. Their blowout loss is fresh on the mind, but what might not be so fresh is the struggles Tampa had against a diminished Falcons team.
I am going to cut Pittsburgh some slack here and take the Steelers and the points.
FanDuel QuickSlip: Steelers +10 | Steelers +9
49ers vs. Falcons Odds
Blake Crass: The Falcons trailed the Rams 21-3 at halftime and trailed the Bucs 13-0 and came back to cover both of those games. They have been great in the second half, they rank fifth in second-half points per game with 14.4. The 49ers rank 22nd in the same category with just 8.6 second-half points per game.
Even if San Francisco jumps out early, I think the Falcons would be able to wear down the short-handed 49ers and snare another backdoor cover.
Win or lose, the average margin of victory in Falcons games this year has been 3.6. Whether they are favored or big dogs, their style of play just keeps games close. The 49ers’ offense is also not designed to utilize the explosive play which will allow the Falcons to keep up against their banged-up opponents.
I think this will be another one-score game for the Falcons, who will have a chance to win the game outright in the fourth quarter. I like this line down to +4, having already moved down to +4.5 on Saturday.
Pick: Falcons +4.5 | Bet to +4
Patriots vs. Browns Odds
John Lanfranca: I don’t believe we will know the status of Mac Jones until about 90 minutes before kickoff Sunday, and I also don’t believe it matters. The game plan will once again be simple and efficient for a Patriots’ offense that helped Bailey Zappe average 9.0 yards per attempt in his first ever NFL start as a rookie.
Neither defense has the personnel to consistently force the other team into difficult down and distance situations. While there may be some long, sustained drives where the clock is constantly running, there will also surely be several explosive runs and play-action shot plays.
As long as we can avoid turnovers in the red zone, each individual drive stands to have a high chance of producing points. Expect a higher scoring game than the name value of these quarterbacks might indicate.
FanDuel QuickSlip: Over 43 | Bet to 44
Vikings vs. Dolphins Odds
Cody Malstrom: With the news of Thompson starting, most of the value on the number has been sapped as this climbed to as high as 3.5. Instead, I will be shifting my focus to the total.
The Dolphins offense has completely crumbled since losing Tagovailoa, abandoning its offensive identity that brought it success in the first place. Until Thompson proves he can get the offense humming again, this is a unit that I imagine will be getting pushed off the field early.
While the Vikings defense is nothing special, it is still a Mike Zimmer-built unit that can generate pressure in the backfield and force Thompson into limited checkdowns and mistakes.
Their offense has also gone back to its roots and is poised for another successful outing through the air against one of the bottom-feeding defensive pass units.
Take the under at no lower than 45 with a live opportunity on the Vikings at -2.5 or better should the Miami luck box activate early.
Pick: Under 46 | Bet to 45
Panthers vs. Rams Odds
John Lanfranca: What the Panthers do well defensively should present the Rams with similar problems as they’ve faced throughout the season.
Trends suggest the home team may be getting too much credit in this spot as well. Since 2017, visiting teams catching 10 or more points whose opponent has a losing record are 21-11-1 (65.6%) against the spread.
If the Panthers’ offense did not have so many question marks, I would gladly play the side here (I still lean that way). Instead, I will make the Rams prove to me that they can create big plays and light up the scoreboard in a manner they have yet to in 2022.
Pick: Rams Team Total Under 26.5 | Bet until 25.5
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Odds
Sam Farley: Kenneth Walker has benefited from Rashaad Penny’s injury, and it looks like Eno Benjamin could be the man to benefit from James Conner’s rib injury. We don’t know how long Benjamin will be the lead back, but a game against the Seahawks is the perfect place to start trying to get himself stuck into that role.
Benjamin only managed 3.1 yards per carry (25 yards on eight carries) against the Eagles last week, but Philadelphia has one of the best rush defenses. That can’t be said for the Seahawks, a team that has allowed 851 yards on the ground through five games, the most in the league. That’s an average of 170.2 yards per game.
Benjamin’s rushing line for this game sits at 61.5 yards. While Kliff Kingsbury isn’t known for a punishing ground game, running the ball will almost certainly be part of the game plan on Sunday given the Seahawks’ defensive deficiencies.
I’m obviously on the over on that rushing total, but I’d aim higher and take him to get more than 75 rushing yards at +190 at bet365.
Eno Benjamin Over 61.5 Rushing Yards
Eno Benjamin: 75 or More Rushing Yards (+190 at Bet365)
Bills vs. Chiefs Odds
Anthony Dabbundo: Buffalo has played at a really fast tempo this season and ranks first in pace in the first halves of games this year. Part of me wonders if Buffalo will continue to play at that pace on Sunday because of the risks it poses in tiring its own defense down the stretch. Both defenses will be set up to take away explosives from the other at all costs.
The Bills love to use Josh Allen as the de-facto run game, especially when facing other playoff caliber teams. His average carries per game last year in games against non-playoff teams was just 5.7, but that number rose to 9.6 per game in games against playoff teams.
Buffalo has already played three teams expected in the playoffs and he’s produced 58 yards per game on 9.7 rush attempts. Mahomes had two games against the Bills last year — he had eight carries for 61 yards in the regular season, and seven for 69 in the playoff game.
This game is once again likely to come down to whichever team has the ball last and for that reason it would be Chiefs +2.5 or nothing if I had to take a side. The Bills first-half pace has been too fast this season for me to even consider betting a first-half under.
Instead, I’m targeting the quarterback props and will be looking to live bet each team at +3.5 or better throughout the game. Both teams should unleash their athletic quarterbacks in this game and if the Bills are successful in getting to Mahomes, he’ll be on the move often as a way to counter the two-deep defense taking away explosive plays.
Josh Allen Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110) | Bet to 50.5
Patrick Mahomes Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-120) | Bet until 26.5